Estimated annual leak · modeled range
$0a year
Modeled midpoint, prorated. Not a measured loss.
Retail · margin leak estimator
How much is your Retail marketing leaking?
Use your revenue, marketing spend and answers to explore a modeled annual opportunity range. Free, with no login or account access.
Use the results on your own, or choose a paid audit or a fit call. Both next steps are optional.
Free · No login · Nothing leaves your browser
Model reference: $56k/yr. Published cases: 8, lower median $54,000/yr. Reconcile online and store demand before crediting campaigns. Assess discounts, returns and product contribution across both channels without counting the same sale twice.
Live reading · updates on every answer
Leak risk score
Appears after your first answer. Based on your answers, not on the dollars.
Pick an industry to sharpen the range.
Directional model output. Not a measured loss or promised recovery. Formula and rates are disclosed below.
Step 1 of 7 · Tell us about the Retail business
Rough numbers are fine.
Tell us about the Retail business
Three quick inputs set your baseline. Rough numbers are fine, and nothing leaves your browser.
Quick start
Industry
Advanced: blended ROAS and site conversion rate (optional)
Optional, and it stays in your browser. Either number narrows your range instead of widening it: the model stops guessing at your efficiency and uses yours.
Choice steps advance on click. Nothing leaves your browser.
In their words · 7 Retail client statementsAll 60 client statements →
RETAIL
$88k a year of wasted spend cut in 7 days
Paid social proven to lift store visits: ~1 in 3 → 9 in 10
“Our CFO doubted that online ads drove store visits. David’s matched market geo lift test proved the doubt right: footfall barely changed where the ads were off. The budget moved to markets and channels that passed the test.”
VP of Marketing · Retail · Omnichannel
Written approvalUnder NDA7 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offRETAIL
$71k a year of wasted spend cut in 7 days
Loyalty program margin vs its liability: −8% → +6%
“Loyalty was untouchable, so nobody had priced it. David set our accrued point liability against the incremental margin the program drove, and it was underwater. We restructured earn and burn without gutting the rewards members value.”
VP of Customer Loyalty · Retail · Grocery
Written approvalUnder NDA7 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offRETAIL
$69k annual returns cost reallocation identified in 7 days
Online margin once its returns are charged in: 2% → 9%
“Online looked as profitable as our stores, which felt wrong. David charged returns processing to the channel that generated each return, and online’s margin fell from flattering to honest. We stopped scaling the wrong channel.”
Head of Ecommerce Logistics · Retail · Fashion
Written approvalUnder NDA7 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offRETAIL
$58k a year found in 6 days
Margin on big ticket orders, delivery in: −1% → +6%
“Free delivery and assembly were eating our biggest orders. David rebuilt the true cost with two person crews, vehicle time and failed deliveries, and some lines were near break even. Tiered service pricing on the largest items fixed it.”
Head of Ecommerce · Retail · Furniture
Written approvalUnder NDA6 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offRETAIL
$54k a year found in 6 days
Fulfillment margin on click and collect orders: −2% → +5%
“Click and collect was never free. David rebuilt the cost of a collection order, the picking, staging and handover labor hiding in store payroll, and on many order types it matched the delivery it replaced. We repriced those.”
VP of Merchandising · Retail · Home improvement
Written approvalUnder NDA6 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offRETAIL
$49k a year found in 6 days
Stock marked down before demand softened: ~40% → ~8%
“Our markdown calendar was cutting prices on lines still selling at full price. David compared markdown timing against each SKU’s real demand curve. Discounts now trigger on live sell through instead of a date, and clearance still clears.”
Head of Merchandising · Retail · Electronics
Written approvalUnder NDA6 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offRETAIL
$41k a year found in 5 days
Promo discount covered by vendor funding: 78% → 96%
“The vendor pays for it, we assumed. David reconciled every cofunded promotion against the support we actually received, and the discounts routinely ran deeper than the funding. Renegotiated terms and promo guardrails closed it.”
Director of Trade Marketing · Retail · Beauty
Written approvalUnder NDA5 days to findings
David JacksonSenior Auditor · signed this audit offThe calculator is free. An optional paid audit checks your account data and produces evidence for its findings.
What is the next step?
Keep your estimate, explore the case studies or request a paid audit. The calculator does not connect to your accounts. A fit call can help you assess whether an audit is appropriate.
Model assumptions and limitations
This calculator applies model assumptions to your inputs. Its range, comparison position and score are directional scenarios, not measured account losses, verified peer percentiles or a recovery promise. The industry reference amounts are model references, distinct from the lower medians of published case figures. Underlying calibration budgets and validation evidence are not published.
- Monthly marketing spend is multiplied by 12 and the selected industry rate band. Monthly revenue is multiplied by 12 and 0.84% to 1.63% for the second term. These two modeled terms are added, adjusted by your answers, and rounded.
- Higher spend changes the marketing term; higher revenue changes the pricing, margin and retention term. These terms may describe related economic effects, so their sum is a scenario for investigation, not additive proven savings.
- The comparison uses the marketing term only. Its reference is annual marketing spend multiplied by the middle point of the industry model curve. A position from 10 to 90 on that curve is not an observed peer percentile.
- The 0 to 100 score summarizes the selected answers. Category scores reflect allocated shares of the estimated midpoint, not independently measured health.
- Optional ROAS and conversion inputs scale the range against model reference values and narrow it by a fixed factor of 0.70 before rounding. A narrower interval does not establish greater statistical confidence.
- When spend exceeds half of revenue, a midpoint limit of 6% of annual revenue can activate. Rounding and minimum interval width still apply. This is a model safeguard, not an observed business limit.
Input and coefficient sensitivity are model behavior. Calibration periods, eligible budgets and validation errors are unavailable in the published cases.
Directional model estimates, not a diagnosis of your accounts. Nothing leaves your browser to produce this result.
Behind the Retail estimate
What the model assumes for Retail
The Retail model reference is $56k a year. Among the five modeled categories, Retail gives Pricing & margin a 15% heavier weight in the category split and a head start as the first area to investigate when your answers point two ways.
The 8 published Retail cases are a separate statistic: a lower median annual highlight figure of $54,000, computed from the cases listed below, not from the model. The largest of them is Online ads were paying for in store demand, −$88k a year, found in 7 days.
What the Retail estimator asks
Every version of the calculator starts from monthly revenue and monthly marketing spend. Three of the seven questions then carry Retail options, listed here as the wizard shows them. Each option still maps to the same five leak categories, which is what keeps a Retail estimate comparable with any other.
Where does most of your marketing budget go?
The Retail channel mix. The answer moves weight between wasted paid spend and attribution.
- Paid social: Meta, TikTok
- Google Search & Shopping
- Marketplaces & retail media (Amazon)
- Influencers & affiliates: Creator fees, gifting & affiliate commissions
- Organic, email & SEO
- Local & in store marketing: Local media, circulars, in store promos & events
- Honestly, I’m not sure
How do you mainly make money?
The Retail revenue model. The answer moves weight between pricing and retention.
- One off orders
- Subscribe & save / replenishment
- Mostly via marketplaces (commission): You sell on Amazon and similar marketplaces, which take a cut
- Retail / wholesale channels too
- A mix
- Stores + online (omnichannel): In store sales alongside your ecommerce
- Not sure / it varies
Where do you suspect you lose the most?
The Retail vocabulary for the five categories. The answer orders the checklist; it never moves the score.
- Wasted ad spend
- Tracking & attribution (iOS, ROAS)
- Site & checkout conversion
- Margin, discounting & shipping
- Repeat purchase & LTV
- Store vs online economics: Returns, fulfillment & which channel really carries the margin
- Not sure: that’s why I’m here
Tracking and the optional inputs
Retail answers the tracking question on the web analytics scale, from a modeled, reconciled first party setup down to patchy or not sure.
Advanced, optional: a blended ROAS, placeholder 3.0, and a site conversion rate, placeholder 2.0%. Either one narrows the Retail range instead of widening it.
Four Retail leak patterns from the published cases
Each card names the cases it rests on; open one for its evidence. Together the cards cover all 8 published Retail cases. The Retail marketing audit page explains each pattern and shows the before and after of its largest case.
Paid media
Online ads paying for store demand
1 of the 8 published cases · $88k a year
- Online ads were paying for in store demand, −$88k a year
Promotions
Markdowns and promos that give away more than they earn
2 of the 8 published cases · $41k to $49k a year
- Markdown timing was leaving margin on the shelf, +$49k a year
- Vendor promo funding wasn’t covering the margin given away, +$41k a year
Loyalty
Loyalty generosity without a P&L
1 of the 8 published cases · $71k a year
- Loyalty points cost more than the repeat they drove, −$71k a year
Cost to serve
Fulfillment and fees missing from channel economics
4 of the 8 published cases · $38k to $69k a year
What an audit checks after a Retail estimate
- SKU level margin against current input costs
- Promo and markdown incrementality
- Loyalty program cost against the incremental basket
- Category media spend against category margin
- Early markdown and clearance timing
The estimate points at a category; the audit tests these 5 Retail checks against your own account data. Compare industries in the 2026 benchmark.
Why trust the estimate
A wasted ad spend calculator with explicit assumptions.
01
Industry model assumptions
The calculator uses industry rates and your inputs. Published case lower medians are shown separately so you can compare their definitions.
02
Understand the range
The interval describes a model scenario. It does not establish the percentage of comparable businesses that achieved that result.
03
The audit makes it real
An estimate can’t be acted on by itself. The audit names each leak, proves it with your data and hands you the fix. $10,000 to $50,000 of findings, or your money back.
Next step, optional
Turn estimates into evidence.
Fixed fee. 5 to 7 working days. $10,000 to $50,000 of findings, or your money back.
Questions about the Retail estimator.
Is the estimator really free, and what’s the catch?
Yes. The Retail calculator uses your inputs and the Retail model assumptions, with no account access. You can keep the results or choose an optional paid audit or fit call.
Does the calculator need access to my ad or analytics accounts?
No. It runs entirely in your browser from a few situational inputs, with Retail preselected as the industry. No logins and no account access, by design.
How accurate is the estimate?
It is a directional model using your inputs and Retail industry assumptions. Its range and comparison position are not verified peer percentiles or measured account losses. The 8 published Retail cases are a separate statistic, with a lower median annual highlight figure of $54,000 and a largest published case figure of $88,000 a year. An audit checks your own evidence.
What does the Retail estimator ask that the general calculator does not?
Three of its seven questions carry Retail options. Where the budget goes offers Paid social: Meta, TikTok, Google Search & Shopping, Marketplaces & retail media (Amazon), Influencers & affiliates, Organic, email & SEO and Local & in store marketing. How you make money offers One off orders, Subscribe & save / replenishment, Mostly via marketplaces (commission), Retail / wholesale channels too, A mix and Stores + online (omnichannel). Where you suspect the loss offers Wasted ad spend, Tracking & attribution (iOS, ROAS), Site & checkout conversion, Margin, discounting & shipping, Repeat purchase & LTV and Store vs online economics. Each answer still maps to the same five leak categories, so a Retail estimate is comparable with any other.
Why does the Retail calculator ask for a blended ROAS?
It is optional. The Retail version offers two advanced inputs, a blended ROAS with 3.0 as the placeholder reference and a site conversion rate with 2.0% as the placeholder. Either number narrows your Retail range rather than widening it, because the model stops guessing at your efficiency and uses yours. Leave both empty and the range stays wider.
Retail wasted ad spend calculator: model and case evidence
This calculator applies model assumptions to your inputs. Its range, comparison position and score are directional scenarios, not measured account losses, verified peer percentiles or a recovery promise. The industry reference amounts are model references, distinct from the lower medians of published case figures. Underlying calibration budgets and validation evidence are not published.
Reconcile online and store demand before crediting campaigns. Assess discounts, returns and product contribution across both channels without counting the same sale twice.
Scroll horizontally to compare all columns on a narrow screen.
| Industry | Published cases | Model reference / year | Case lower median / year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 8 | $56k | $54,000 |
The population is the 74 published case studies, with one selected highlight figure per case. It is not a representative sample of all SMBs or a total of every finding in each audit. A lower median is the middle value after sorting, using the lower of the two middle values for an even count. Published annual figures include different outcome types; they are not all collected cash, profit or recurring savings. Case publication dates do not establish common observation, implementation or recovery periods; use each case for its supported timing and outcome.